Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 15, 2024 was 19,190 RMB/ton, an increase of 220 RMB/ton from the average market price of 18,970 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.16%.

Macro favorable factors, aluminum price resonance

The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June was strong, and the non-ferrous sector continued to strengthen. As an international product with strong financial attributes, aluminum prices slightly rebounded in March.

Fundamentals of supply and demand: supply-demand was strong

As of March 15th, the domestic aluminum ingot supply was at a historical high level, and the actual production was relatively large. Although the social inventory was lower than expected, it is mainly due to the significant increase in the proportion of aluminum and water. There were rumors in the market that Yunnan would partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan was relatively low, as hydropower had not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity had grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption was limited.

On the consumer side, downstream work continued to resume, and orders for other sectors except for building profiles were still available. Downstream aluminum rod production continued to rise, while the recovery speed of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates was slightly weak. The domestic meeting in March continued to release positive consumer sentiment.

Market outlook

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate to be stronger in the short term.

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