Price trend

Under the strengthened cost support and the game between increased supply and weak demand of itself, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber market had recently risen narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 18th, the domestic market price of polyester staple fiber was 7,652 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to March 13th.

Analysis review

Due to the escalating situation in Europe and the expected impact of US crude oil destocking, crude oil may break through upwards. As of March 15th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was at 81.04 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was at 85.34 US dollars per barrel. The price increase of PX had further expanded. Although the domestic PX supply level is still relatively high in the short term, the concentration of equipment maintenance plans in the second quarter, coupled with the investment of new downstream PTA production capacity, will lead to a warming and consolidation of the PX price center. The PTA market had been affected by this and stopped falling and rebounded. As of March 18th, the market price in East China was 5,931 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.15% compared to March 12th.

The downstream demand side had not performed as expected, and the "peak season is not prosperous" has become a new normal in the yarn market in recent years, and this year is also the same. The trading atmosphere in the pure polyester yarn market was light, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus. The inquiry and transaction situation was not good, and the accumulated inventory pressure was high. The cash flow of the yarn factory was tight, and the enthusiasm for purchasing polyester short fibers was not high, with procurement being mainly on demand. As of March 18th, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was 12,375 RMB/ton, showing a slight weakening. The terminal weaving industry had returned to normal levels, and domestic and foreign trade orders had just started. Although domestic trade orders were mostly spring and summer season orders, and foreign trade orders for home textile fabrics were relatively hot selling, the orders were issued less than expected.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that in the short term, cost side PX maintenance expectations and PTA maintenance expectations will boost the cost side. The number of new orders issued by the terminal textile and clothing industry may gradually improve, and after the domestic and foreign markets gradually improve, the intention of downstream replenishment on demand will also further increase. There is an expectation of improvement in the fundamentals, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate and rise slightly.

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