According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from March 18th to 22nd (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market first increased from 2,701 RMB/ton and then decreased to 2,670 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices fell by 1.17%, with a month on month increase of 1.30% and a year-on-year increase of 2.10%. The domestic methanol market rebounded after rising. At the beginning of the week, supported by downstream external procurement, the domestic methanol market continued to operate strongly. However, downstream procurement sentiment was average, with a focus on essential procurement, resulting in a weakening market atmosphere.
As of the close of March 22, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,552 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,570 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,535 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,543 RMB/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 22% or 0.86% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 935,855 lots, with a holding volume of 826,255 lots and a daily increase of 52,496 lots.
On the cost and supply side, global coal supply remains stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not sufficient to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. The short-term thermal coal market may maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Seranis may restore the previous load, resulting in an increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream MTBE: Dongying Shenchi and Dechengcun have started construction plans, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: The shutdown and consolidation of Yongcheng Longyu, Guizhou Tianfu, and Qianjiang Jinhua Run units, as well as the start-up of ShengdeRMB units in Inner Mongolia, have reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chlorides: The Dongying Huatai unit has resumed normal load, and the demand for chlorides has not fluctuated significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: The formaldehyde unit of Pengxin in Puyang has increased its load, while the Xinquan unit in Baoji has shut down, resulting in narrow fluctuations in formaldehyde demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of equipment in Yulin Kaiyue, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Gansu Huating, and Inner Mongolia Jiutai; Shandong Mingshui, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), Qitaihe Baotailong, and Xinjiang Zhongtai have reduced production; JiuRMB Chemical and Qitaihe Baotailong facilities have been restored. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 21, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $344.00-$345.00 per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 104.00-105.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 303.75-304.75 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, the supply of goods will continue to be abundant, and traditional downstream demand may increase. MTO needs to pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of a certain MTO device in East China. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic methanol market price consolidation will be the main focus.
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