Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes slightly decreased in March. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for seamless tubes of 20 # and 108 * 4.5 was 4785 RMB/ton, but at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,692.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 8%.

Analysis review

In terms of supply: After the year, the seamless tube factory continued to accumulate inventory, and in March, the inventory in the seamless tube factory reached a relatively high level, which led to increased market supply pressure, intensified market competition, and compressed enterprise profit margins. Some enterprises were facing the problem of overcapacity.

In terms of demand: There was sufficient supply of seamless tubes, but the demand performance was relatively weak, and the market was showing a situation of oversupply. Due to the restructuring of the real estate industry, the overall demand growth rate in the market had decreased compared to previous years. The sluggish demand in the real estate industry had become an important factor restricting the development of the seamless tube market.

In terms of exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 15.912 million tons of steel from January to February 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%; From January to February 2024, China exported a total of 793,200 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 21.15%.

Market outlook

In summary, the prices of seamless tubes in the national market were showing a low operating trend, mainly affected by weak domestic demand and high inventory. The problem of overcapacity in the seamless tube industry will still exist. There is uncertainty about whether the demand for Silver April will improve as the peak season for Gold March fell short. The annual comparison chart of SunSirs showed that the prices of seamless tubes had fluctuated in April over the past four years. If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut can be implemented, the implementation of favorable policies may drive market transactions to improve. It is expected that the domestic seamless tube prices will mainly fluctuate at a low level in April.

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