The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on April 1st. The zero selling price of refined oil has once again been raised, and the retail price in 2024 has gone through three increases, one decrease, and two setbacks. The crude oil market trend has risen during the cycle, and the rate of change remains positive. The 2024 refined oil retail price adjustment will face a "fourth" increase.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend is rising. As of the 29th, due to the Good Friday, the crude oil market is closed. On the previous trading day, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $83.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.00 per barrel. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and oil producing countries are reducing production as expected. In addition, Russian refineries have unexpectedly reduced production, providing strong support for international oil prices. On the other hand, US energy companies have reduced the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for the second consecutive week this week, coupled with market concerns about future supply expectations and risks, leading to an increase in crude oil prices. As of the 1st, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 4.43%, corresponding to a 190 RMB/ton increase in gasoline prices and a 200 RMB/ton increase in diesel prices; The price of 92# gasoline has been increased by 0.15 yuan, and the price of 95# gasoline has been increased by 0.16 yuan. 0# diesel has been raised by 0.16 yuan, and the zero selling price of finished oil has been raised again in this round.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, there has been little change in the operating rate of refineries in Shandong, and the operating rates of main refineries have all increased. The refinery that is about to resume work has been delayed, with Shandong's local refinery operating at around 59%. Due to the arrival of Qingming Festival, businesses are not required to purchase and stock up, and the expected increase in resident travel during the holiday period will lead to an increase in gasoline demand, resulting in a slight increase in the gasoline market.
In terms of diesel: On the one hand, the rising trend of crude oil prices has continued to support the cost side, bringing certain benefits to the diesel market; On the other hand, with the rise of temperature, the operating rate of outdoor projects is gradually increasing, and various regions are starting to carry out spring plowing. In addition, with the recovery of logistics transportation, the diesel market trend is rising.
Currently, there is still a long short game in the crude oil market, with geopolitical tensions on the supply side and high oil production in the United States competing against each other; On the demand side, China's demand has rebounded. As the summer driving season approaches in the United States, gasoline consumption expectations increase, and the demand side provides support for crude oil. Overall, oil prices may maintain a strong trend. With the restart of maintenance equipment, the production of Shandong local refineries has slightly increased, leading to an increase in supply; In terms of demand, due to the impact of the Qingming holiday, there will be an increase in resident travel, and gasoline demand will improve. In the short term, the gasoline market may mainly rise; The demand for diesel continues to increase, and in the short term, there is still a trend of rising prices in the diesel market.
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