According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from April 1st to 9th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3578 RMB/ton to 3,639 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.72%, a month on month increase of 0.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.78%. The market is showing a strong situation in the north and weak in the south, with prices in many northern regions rising. This is mainly due to the strong operation of international crude oil, which has driven up costs and increased demand for temperature recovery. Business owners are reluctant to sell and are pushing up prices; The prices in the southern region are relatively weak, and the decrease in prices from major production enterprises has driven the market price downward.
On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Liaohe Petrochemical has slightly reduced production and Sinopec Quanzhou has resumed production. However, intermittent shutdowns of Jinling Petrochemical and Yunnan Petrochemical have led to a decrease in the utilization rate of refinery capacity in the area, and the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month. The supply side has a positive impact.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have risen this week, with the main positive factors being the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Syria, market concerns that the situation in the Middle East may further escalate, and potential supply risks increasing. As of April 8th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $90.38 per barrel, a decrease of $0.79 or 0.9%.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. Due to the influence of large-scale rainfall in the southern region during the Qingming Festival, the market demand for asphalt is slightly flat, while scattered demand is mainly in the northern region. Many inquiries for low-priced resources have increased demand due to sunny weather, which provides some support for shipment. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.
As of the close of April 9th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3,820 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,834 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3805 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,815 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 8% or 0.21% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 106,783 lots, and the holding amount was 262,115 lots, with a daily increase of 2,354 lots.
In the future market forecast, international crude oil will continue to rise, with significant support for asphalt costs; Due to the influence of large-scale rainfall in the southern region during the Qingming Festival, the market demand for goods has been slightly flat, while the demand for sunny weather in the northern region has increased, providing some support for shipments. The asphalt analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic asphalt market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term.
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