According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from April 1st to 9th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market dropped from 2,623 RMB/ton to 2,545 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 2.95%, with a month on month decrease of 6.32% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05%. The domestic methanol market has been operating in a narrow range, with a moderate concentration of spring inspections for methanol plants, and the main focus is on maintaining high operating rates. Market prices are operating weakly.
As of the close of April 9th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,491 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,495 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,466 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,479 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 18% or 0.72% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 536,590 lots, and the position was 486,564 lots, with a daily increase of 23,498 lots.
On the cost and supply side, global coal supply remains stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream demand for dimethyl ether has increased due to the start-up of facilities in Qianjiang Jinhua Run and Guizhou Tianfu; Downstream MTBE: Construction plans for Shenchi, Lihuayi, and Tian'ancun, resulting in increased demand for MTBE; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjing has maintenance plans, but Nanjing Yinglishi will recover after a short shutdown. Hengli Phase I has expected recovery, resulting in a decrease in demand for acetic acid; Downstream chlorides: Due to the shutdown and maintenance of the Dongying plant in Jinling, Shandong, the demand for chlorides has decreased; Downstream formaldehyde: The Lankao device has increased its load, and Weifang Xudong has expected to start operating, with little fluctuation in formaldehyde demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, Jinmei Huayu Plant has reduced production; Sichuan Lutianhua, Sichuan Daxing, Jinfeng Wenxi, Shanxi Jinxiang, and Ningxia Dadi Installation have been restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 8th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 341.00 to 342.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market was 97.00-98.00 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 302.50-303.50 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, the supply of goods will continue to be abundant, while downstream demand will perform relatively average in a supply-demand game state. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.
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