According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from April 8th to 17th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3,629 RMB/ton to 3,699 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.93%, a month on month increase of 2.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%. Driven by the rise of international crude oil, cost support has strengthened, and asphalt spot prices continue to rise. The demand for spot resources has differentiated, with the temperature in the northern region recovering slowly and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm being limited; The widespread rainfall in the south has hindered the demand for essential goods, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. In the short term, the spot price of asphalt remains relatively strong, with a focus on strength in the north and weakness in the south for the time being.
On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu will produce asphalt from April 3-10, and Dongming will resume production in April and stabilize production, driving a slight increase in asphalt production in Shandong region. Although Ningbo KeRMB, Xinhai, and Alpha have stopped production, the main refinery Jinling Petrochemical has increased production, and the overall supply is still abundant; The main refinery in Xinjiang, Ke Petrochemical, saw a slight increase, while Tahe Petrochemical maintained stable production, driving a slight increase in overall supply. There is a bearish impact on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and in the short term, oil prices will continue to operate at high levels. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of continued upward trend after later adjustments, mainly due to the unresolved supply side risks and the difficulty in cooling geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States will stimulate gasoline demand. Both supply and demand will provide strong support for oil prices. As of April 17th, Brent crude oil futures closed slightly lower, with the settlement price of the main contract at $90.02 per barrel, a decrease of $0.08.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, demand for asphalt is slowly recovering, with limited low-priced resources and some shipments being supported. In the southern region, there are mostly cloudy and rainy weather, which hinders demand for asphalt. There is mainly a small amount of speculative low-priced demand. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.
As of the close of April 17th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has fallen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3,788 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,797 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,756 RMB/ton. It closed at 3768 RMB/ton in the last trading day, a decrease of 36% compared to the previous settlement day, a decrease of 0.95%. The trading volume was 127,739 lots, and the position was 227,515 lots, with a daily increase of -1,588. In the future market forecast, international crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and asphalt supply remains abundant, with slight differences in demand between the north and south. The asphalt analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.
In the future, international crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and asphalt supply remains abundant, with slight differences in demand between the north and south. The asphalt analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.
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