According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was relatively strong last week. On April 19th, the energy index was 986 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 36.84% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 92.95% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, the overall production and sales of thermal coal remain normal, and the market is relatively strong. Mainly focus on implementing long-term cooperative shipping. Recently, the non electric industry has released a small amount of essential demand, and the enthusiasm of traders to operate has increased. There has been an increase in transportation vehicles at market pitheads, but downstream market demand has not been fully released, which has limited support for the rise in coal prices.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices rose last week, but as prices rose, the increase narrowed and the number of transactions gradually decreased. The search for goods in the market is gradually decreasing, and there is a lack of strong support for the upward trend of coal prices. As of this week, the available days and inventory of downstream power plants in the 8 coastal provinces have continued to increase compared to last week.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in March 2024, China imported 41.379 million tons of coal, an increase of 214,000 tons or 0.52% from 41.1650 million tons in the same period last year; Compared to February's 33.75 million tons, it increased by 7.629 million tons, an increase of 22.60%. From January to March 2024, China imported a total of 115.897 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in March 2024, China exported 380,000 tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 41.3% and a month on month increase of 65.22%. From January to March 2024, China exported a total of 1.39 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 57.5%.

SunSirs analysts believe that in terms of production areas, long-term cooperative shipping should be implemented as the main approach, and non electricity demand should release a small amount of demand. In terms of downstream ports, as coal prices rise, downstream ports are also starting to observe. The trading atmosphere is gradually deadlocked, and it is expected that the price of thermal coal will continue to fluctuate, depending on downstream market demand.

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