According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent market for refined naphtha has fallen from a high level. As of April 24th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8,486.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from April 15th at 8,554.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8,400-8,600 RMB/ton; As of April 24th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,429.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from 8,479.00 RMB/ton on April 15th. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8,400-8,500 RMB/ton. Recently, the terminal demand in the naphtha market has been weak, with high gasoline and diesel prices falling and refinery prices falling.
Upstream: The crude oil market first fell and then rose, mainly due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the flattening of conflict risk premiums. On the one hand, the risk of conflict in the Middle East region has decreased, and the market expects that the possibility of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports escalating has also decreased. As the market's concerns slow down, the positive international oil supply has dissipated, to some extent smoothing out the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the signals released by the Federal Reserve to the market have led investors to generally worry that the interest rate cut cycle may not arrive so quickly; In addition, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday, April 17th, showed a significant increase in US crude oil inventories last week.
Downstream: According to monitoring by SunSirs, the recent high consolidation of the toluene market has resulted in lower than expected demand for downstream oil transfer and disproportionation reactions; The maintenance plan for the toluene plant in the near future will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply side. Recently, mixed xylene has been at a high level of consolidation, with downstream PX and mixed blending industries experiencing a slight decline in production. The phthalic anhydride industry has seen low production, and overall support for the demand for mixed toluene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. The starting price of xylene has dropped to a high level, and PX units such as Urumqi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Ningbo Zhongjin have successively shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production has significantly decreased, and as of April 22, PX production has slightly decreased to around 70%.
The international crude oil market is expected to decline from a high level, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment for domestic naphtha; At present, the terminal trading of ground refining naphtha is limited, and market trading is still concentrated in the gap of ground refining restructuring; In terms of gasoline, the May Day holiday is approaching, but intermediaries are not actively purchasing, coupled with high gasoline prices, the gasoline market has slightly declined this week; In terms of diesel, there is not much change in the operating rate of outdoor projects, logistics and transportation are relatively normal, and there is not much change in diesel demand. It is expected that the local refined naphtha market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.
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