According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has shown significant fluctuations. From April 1st to 28th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market first increased from 2,623 RMB/ton and then dropped to 2,632 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 0.35%, with a maximum amplitude of 6.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.80%.
In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market underwent a narrow consolidation and operation, with a moderate concentration of spring inspections on methanol plants, with high production mainly maintained, and market prices operating weakly.
In mid month, there was not much contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol. Currently, the construction of domestic methanol plants is still at a high level, and there is some resistance from downstream towards high prices. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in mainland China is relatively low, and there is not much pressure on them to ship. In addition, some enterprises are outsourcing, and the overall market atmosphere is still acceptable.
In the latter half of the month, the domestic methanol supply decreased, but the demand did not change much. In addition, some downstream companies began pre holiday stocking before the May Day holiday, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The domestic methanol market continued to rise and operate mainly.
Approaching the end of the month, some downstream stores have a demand for pre holiday stocking, and the market atmosphere is relatively high, with the overall market operating strongly; Subsequently, the influence of geopolitical factors weakened, and the market atmosphere returned to rationality. Traders' purchasing sentiment weakened, and prices in the northwest production area fell from high levels. However, due to the increase in freight costs, the decline in the main sales area was limited, and the market remained stable and weak.
As of the close of April 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,515 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,538 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,511 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,521 RMB/ton, an increase of 18% or 0.72% from the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 372,727 lots and a position of 776,021 lots, with a daily increase of -12,146.
On the cost side, thermal power is still in the mid off-season, and since the flood season, precipitation in the southern region has significantly increased. The daily consumption of power plants has shown a significant downward trend, and inventory is much higher than the same period last year. Relying on long-term cooperation and imported coal replenishment, there is currently no pressure to replenish inventory. There is still some time until the peak summer season. The pressure on thermal power is not high, and the short-term supply-demand relationship is relatively loose, which is difficult to change. The power to replenish inventory at the terminal is still insufficient. Most terminals remain cautious and cautious, purchasing according to demand, and there is not much room for incremental replenishment, resulting in weak and stable prices. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
Demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Puyang Pengxin formaldehyde plant restarted, formaldehyde demand decreased; Downstream dimethyl ether: The low load operation of the Qianjiang Jinhua Run unit and the shutdown of the Guizhou Tianfu unit have reduced the demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: After Yuhuang starts construction, it will affect next week's production, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: After the shutdown and maintenance of mainstream factories in Shandong, the equipment returned to normal, and the demand for chloride increased; Downstream acetic acid: Shanghai Huayi has resumed normal operation, and the demand for acetic acid has increased. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of Inner Mongolia Yigao, Inner Mongolia Donghua, Inner Mongolia, and Baitai equipment; Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Inner Mongolia, and Baitai facilities have reduced production; Anqing Shuguang, Shaanxi Weihua, Inner Mongolia and Baitai, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Guangju New Materials, and the restoration of the Zhong'an Joint Plant. The increase in capacity utilization may lead to a continued increase in supply, which is influenced by bearish factors on the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 26th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $343.00-344.00 per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 98.00-99.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 305.25-306.25 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, there is currently no strong support from the cost side for the market, while traditional downstream demand will weaken. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will be mainly weak in the short term.
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