Price Trend

Last week, the domestic LPG (Shandong) civil market showed a trend of rising and falling. On March 2, the average price of liquefied gas market was 3,650 RMB/ ton, and on March 6, the average price was 3,766.67 RMB/ ton, with an increase of 3.2% during the period, and the price was 9.6% lower than that of the same period last year.

Analysis of Influencing Fctors

Products: the LPG market has continued to rise and then fell back. As of March 6, the ex-factory price of SINOPEC Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 4,060 RMB/ ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 4,400 RMB/ ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3,920 RMB/ ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3,800 RMB/ ton, and that of Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd was 3,900 RMB/ ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company was 3,850 RMB/ ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG was 3,950 RMB/ ton.

In the early part of last week, the LPG market continued to take the lead under the support of international crude oil. Under the mentality of fear of rising in the downstream, actively enter the market for replenishment. In addition, in the early stage, the price of LPG has been reduced to a low level, and the downstream inventory is relatively low. The replenishment operation of a certain amount of inventory has led to smooth shipment of manufacturers and reduced inventory pressure. But at present, the domestic resumption has not been fully recovered, and the terminal demand is in a weak position. With the completion of the downstream staged replenishment, the market has been delisted to consume inventory, and the market transaction atmosphere has become weaker than that in the earlier stage. In the later part of the week, the broad decline of international crude oil affected the market mentality. The manufacturer's shipment has become weaker than that in the earlier stage, and the price has again turned to decline.

Latest CP price: Saudi Aramco announced in March that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $430/ ton, down $75/ ton from last month, and butane to $480/ ton, down $65/ ton from last month. It is estimated that the c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3,810 RMB/ ton, and butane is about 4,196 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were five commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the ninth week of 2020 (3.2-3.6), among which the top three were MTBE (3.42%), petroleum coke (3.37%) and LPG (3.20%). There were 9 kinds of commodities with a decline on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were coke (-3.11%), gasoline (-2.56%) and DME (-1.68%). This week's average was -0.03%.

Market Forecast

At present, the market supply continues to operate at a low level, the downstream resumption of work is still slowly increasing, and the domestic demand is less. With the completion of the downstream periodic replenishment, the consumption of inventory in the short term, the market transaction atmosphere becoming weak, and the international crude oil in a weak downward trend, the market support weakened, it is expected that there is still a possibility of decline in the short term.

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