According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall market for refined naphtha in late April declined. As of April 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8,376.50 YUAN/ton, a decrease of 1.67% from April 21st at 8,519.00 YUAN/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8,400 YUAN/ton; As of April 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,349.00 YUAN/ton, a decrease of 1.56% from April 21st at 8,481.50 YUAN/ton. The actual transaction price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was around 8,300 YUAN/ton. The international crude oil market has fallen from a high level, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment of domestic naphtha. Terminal trading of refined naphtha is limited, and market trading is still concentrated in the gap of refined naphtha restructuring.

Upstream: The crude oil market is volatile, and the instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices, which will keep oil prices at high levels. The resistance to a significant decline in the future is still significant. In addition, the current demand side has also shown some positive expectations, and the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand. The decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories has also provided support for oil prices.

Downstream: According to monitoring by SunSirs, the toluene market slightly declined in late April. Due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the suppression of conflict risk premiums, international crude oil prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. The domestic production of xylene has slightly increased from 6.9% to around 7.1%, but overall production is still at a low stage, with weak support for toluene demand.

The international crude oil market has fallen from a high level, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment of domestic naphtha; At present, the terminal trading of ground refining naphtha is limited, and market trading is still concentrated in the gap of ground refining restructuring; In terms of gasoline, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of refineries in the short term. With the arrival of the May Day holiday, there will be an increase in residents' travel. In addition, with the rising temperature, there will be an increase in fuel consumption, ensuring the demand for gasoline. There is also room for a slight increase in gasoline prices; The demand for diesel has not changed much, and the travel of hazardous chemical vehicles during holidays is limited. In addition, the bearish mentality of traders has increased, and the willingness to ship is strong. It is expected that the short-term diesel market will mainly fluctuate and decline. Overall, it is expected that the post holiday refined naphtha market will mainly consolidate.

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