According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber market experienced a volatile downward trend in April. The spot rubber market in China was around 13,560 RMB/ton on April 30th and around 13,860 RMB/ton on April 1st, a decrease of 2.16%.

In April, natural rubber first rose and then fell, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract rising from around 14,550 RMB/ton to 14,850 RMB/ton, and then falling again to around 13,750 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13,600-13,700 RMB/ton, bulk at around 11,800-11,900 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 10,900-11,100 RMB/ton, and domestic latex bulk at around 9,800-10,600 RMB/ton.

Cost side: Currently, the production of raw materials in Thailand is at a low level. As of April 29th, the price of Thai adhesive is 73 Thai baht/kg, with fluctuating prices; Delayed opening of Vietnamese production areas; Due to drought, the rubber cutting in Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China is not smooth. Harvesting has been suspended in many areas, and the cutting area has narrowed. The supply of raw materials is relatively tight, and market prices have increased.

On the demand side: Downstream tire production has remained stable, with primary demand procurement. As of April 30th, the operating load of domestic tire enterprises for semi steel tires is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 70%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of April 28, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 586,100 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 3.77% compared to the same period last week. Among them, the inventory in the bonded zone was 76,500 tons, a decrease of 7.68%; The general trade inventory was 509,600 tons, a decrease of 3.16%. During the recent overseas low production shutdown period, the arrival of natural rubber at ports has decreased, and the ports are currently in a state of destocking.

Limited raw material output from Thailand and Vietnam on the supply side, limited output from domestic production areas, and high raw material prices; At present, downstream tire factories on the demand side generally ship goods, and with the basic completion of pre holiday stocking, tire companies have a cautious purchasing mentality; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

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