In April, the domestic EVA market continued to decline, with spot prices generally dropping significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 30th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11,333.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.03% compared to April 1st.
In terms of raw material ethylene, the spot supply situation was tight in early April, coupled with maintenance of some ethylene plants in Southeast Asia, supporting the strong operation of ethylene prices. Mid month market consolidation volume lacks further guidance. With the recovery of supply, the number of offers in the latter half of the year began to increase. At the same time, domestic demand has remained stable with a slight decline, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. It is expected that the ethylene market may be weak after the holiday;
The market for vinyl acetate also fluctuated and consolidated during the month. Both supply and demand have decreased in the early stage, leading to a stalemate in the game. There were new production capacity investments in China within the month, but in the short term, there was no additional pressure on supply due to self consumption and digestion. However, the downstream load is gradually decreasing, and the consumption of vinyl acetate has decreased to some extent. The spot price of vinyl acetate in the market is fluctuating. Based on the performance of the upstream secondary material market in April, the cost support for EVA has generally remained flat.
In early April, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continued to reach a high level of nearly 90% of the average construction at the end of March, leading to high supply pressure in the industry and a loss of focus on factory pricing. With the successive maintenance of Ningbo Formosa Plastics, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the operating rate at the end of the month has significantly dropped to around 70%, and production has also decreased simultaneously. Although the current on-site supply of goods remains abundant, the supply pressure has eased compared to the beginning of the month. However, overall, the supply side still lacks support for EVA.
The demand side performance of EVA remained weak in April. The new quarter orders for foamed shoe materials have already exhausted their market driving effect at the beginning of the month, and traditional downstream purchases such as cable materials are weak. The purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected, and on-site trading is concentrated in low-end offers. The buyer camp has poor confidence and is mainly cautious in pre holiday stocking, with no significant increase in volume observed. There are very few new orders in the market, which has led to an increase in actual orders, discounts, and sales by merchants. During April, there was a significant drag on the EVA price trend from the demand side.
The current domestic EVA market price has been continuously declining for more than a month, but there is still no clear turning point. Firstly, from a fundamental perspective, the secondary raw material market is expected to remain stable with little movement, and future changes may still be limited, providing support for the spot market to become smoother. There is little possibility of a rebound in demand after the end of the period, and the market may still be struggling to maintain the demand line. Technically speaking, the probability of crossing the 30 day line above the 7-day line in the short term is relatively low, while the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs indicates a higher probability of continuing the weak trend of EVA in the future. In summary, it is expected that the EVA market will be mainly weak and consolidating after the holiday. It is recommended to closely monitor the supply side trends.
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