Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes slightly decreased in April. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,675 RMB/ton, but at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,635 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.43%. The traditional peak season of "gold March and silver April" did not meet expectations, and the overall market performance remained oversupplied.

Analysis review

In terms of supply: The prices of tube billets had fallen significantly this month, and the price adjustment of tube factories was not as significant as that of raw materials. The theoretical profits of seamless tube factories had continued to recover, and the prices of tube billets had fluctuated. There was no upward momentum in the short term, and the purchasing enthusiasm of tube factories had rebounded, but the performance was insufficient; However, the pressure of high inventory and reduced inventory in the factory was still the main pressure. There was a risk of a pullback in factory prices, and profits may fluctuate and narrow.

In terms of demand: After the market demand performance in the first quarter fell short of expectations, there was already a psychological expectation for a reduction in demand for seamless tubes in the market. Due to the downturn in the real estate industry, demand was clearly in a decreasing trend.

In terms of exports: According to the latest statistics from customs, China's exports of seamless tubes reached 437,300 tons in March, a month on month increase of 24.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.38%; From January to March, China exported a total of 1.2305 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 18.05%. In March, China imported 14,200 tons of seamless tubes, and from January to March, China imported a total of 28,800 tons of seamless tubes.

Market outlook

In summary, the pressure of reducing inventory in the management plant still existed, the production profit performance of the management plant was still good, and the continuous increase in factory prices was not supported enough; Downstream demand had significantly decreased, market sentiment was dominated by bearish sentiment, and social inventory was at a relatively low level in recent years. Price fluctuations were difficult to effectively stimulate demand, and oversupply remained the main contradiction as of the end of April. It is expected that the domestic seamless tube prices will remain weak in May.

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