According to the commodity analysis system of the business club, the market of refined naphtha continued to decline after the holiday. As of May 16, the average ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8,054.00 RMB/ton, down 3.85% from 8,376.50 RMB/ton on May 5. The actual transaction price of refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8,000-8,100 RMB/ton; As of May 16, the average ex factory price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 8,026.50 RMB/ton, down 3.86% from 8,349.00 RMB/ton on May 5. The actual transaction price of refined straight run naphtha was about 8,000 RMB/ton. The international crude oil market was volatile, increasing domestic naphtha wait-and-see sentiment. The trading of local refining naphtha terminal was limited, and the market trading was still concentrated on the restructuring gap of local refining.

Upstream: the crude oil market was volatile. On the one hand, the risk of conflict in the Middle East region was reduced, and the positive supply of international oil prices dissipated, stabilizing the crude oil risk premium to a certain extent. On the other hand, the signals released by the Federal Reserve to the market made investors generally worried that the cycle of interest rate reduction might not come so soon, and the concern about the prospect of crude oil demand led to the decline of crude oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, the toluene market continued to decline after the holiday. At present, the international crude oil is weak and volatile, and the cost of toluene has downward risk; Secondly, the demand for downstream oil transfer was less than expected, but the demand for disproportionation reaction was acceptable; The storage and maintenance plan of the toluene device in the later stage can relieve the pressure on the toluene supply side to a certain extent. It is comprehensively expected that the toluene market may stabilize and rebound after a slight decline in the later period.

At present, naphtha price monitoring levels are one-year median, two-year median and three-year median. According to the commodity analysis system of the business club, the average price of naphtha in recent three years is 7,905.10 RMB/ton, the median value is 8,250.75 RMB/ton, the minimum value is 6,645.75 RMB/ton, the maximum value is 9,855.75 RMB/ton, the bottom difference (the difference between the lowest price in recent three years) is 1,408.25 RMB/ton, and the top difference (the difference between the highest price in recent three years) is -1,801.75 RMB/ton.

Future forecast: the international crude oil market is volatile, increasing domestic naphtha wait-and-see sentiment; At present, the trading of naphtha terminals in the local refinery is limited, refineries continuously reduce prices and ship goods, the demand in ethylene cracking direction continues to be depressed, and the gap in local refinery reforming just needs to be traded; In terms of gasoline, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of refineries in the short term, and residents' travel has returned to normal, but the use of oil has increased with the rise of temperature. On the whole, the positive support of gasoline is insufficient, and there is room for a slight decline in the gasoline market in the later period; The supply and demand of diesel market has not changed much, but the wholesale price of diesel is low, and the profit of refineries is limited. There is no lack of a slight upward trend in the later period. On the whole, it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will be dominated by weakness after the holiday.

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