According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the spot price of natural rubber in China continued to rise in mid May. As of May 20th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,180 RMB/ton, which is about 13,590 RMB/ton compared to May 11th, an increase of 4.34%.

In mid May, the natural rubber market rose, with the Shanghai rubber 09 contract fluctuating from around 14,130 RMB/ton to around 14,860 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14,000-14,100 RMB/ton, bulk at around 12,600-12,700 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11,500-11,700 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,300-11,600 RMB/ton.

Cost side: Currently, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by weather, resulting in slow rubber cutting progress. As of May 20th, the price of Thai glue is 78.2 Thai baht/kg, with an increase in price; Delayed opening of Vietnamese production areas; The Yunnan production area in China has been affected by drought, while Hainan has been affected by rainfall, resulting in poor rubber cutting and relatively tight supply of raw materials, leading to an increase in market prices.

On the demand side: Downstream tire maintenance enterprises are gradually recovering their production scheduling, with a focus on rigid demand procurement. As of May 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 70%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of May 19, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 548,000 tons, a decrease of 18,400 tons or 3.25% compared to the previous period. The inventory in the bonded zone was 72,400 tons, a decrease of 3.69%; General trade inventory was 475,600 tons, a decrease of 3.18%. At present, the port is in a state of destocking.

On the supply side, the output of raw materials from Thailand and Vietnam is limited, and the output from domestic production areas is limited. The high prices of raw materials support the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side are in the off-season, with limited procurement and insufficient support for rubber raw material demand; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term.

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