According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the cement market in East China has recently risen, with prices at 314.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 324.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.18%. The current price has dropped by 17.97% compared to last year.
Recently, cement prices have risen in some areas of East China. From the above chart, it can be seen that the cement market has fluctuated in the past two months, and prices have risen this week. From January to April 2024, the national cement production was 50.928 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. In April, the national monthly cement production was 173.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. Recently, the weather in East China has been good, and demand has warmed up compared to the previous period. In addition, it has been affected by the increase in clinker prices in the upstream and downstream areas along the river. In order to increase profits, enterprises in the East China region led by manufacturers to raise prices, resulting in a rebound in the cement market.
Recently, the price of thermal coal has been stable, and in terms of production and sales, the overall production and sales of thermal coal have remained normal, with stable coal supply. Still focusing on implementing long-term cooperative shipping. There has been a decline in phased procurement, and there has been a decrease in coal hauling vehicles at the pit entrance. In terms of downstream ports, the market is currently operating steadily. The market transactions are relatively quiet, maintaining a cautious and watchful state. At present, the supply and demand relationship in the coal market is relatively loose, and the overall demand in the non electric industry is relatively insufficient, with only a small amount of supply being maintained. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will continue to fluctuate.
From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3092.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% (calculated according to comparable standards); Among them, residential investment was 2,339.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.5%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, with residential sales area decreasing by 23.8%. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing reached 2806.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 28.3%, including a 31.1% decrease in residential sales. In recent years, real estate investment has shown a significant year-on-year decline, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.
Due to the continuous decline in prices to a relatively low level in the early stage, and driven by the rising prices of clinker in the Yangtze River region, enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the cement market will mainly experience a slight increase.
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