According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of coniferous wood pulp fluctuated last week, while the price of broadleaf wood pulp remained stable. On May 24th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong was 6,494 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the average price of 6,452 RMB/ton on May 19th. On May 24th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong was 5,872 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on May 19th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot price of coniferous wood pulp increased more than decreased last week, and the overall price slightly increased. In terms of supply, there have been frequent overseas supply disruptions in recent times, and pulp mill quotations have continued to rise. In the short term, the overall overseas driving force remains strong. The domestic port inventory has not changed much, and the overall inventory destocking situation is not ideal. As of May 23, 2024, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China is 1.804 million tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous period. The inventory has shown a trend of accumulating after being destocked for two consecutive weeks.

In terms of demand, the downstream raw paper market is affected by the increase in raw materials, and most paper companies have inverted profits. Some small paper companies have adjusted the needle width pulp ratio to alleviate cost pressure, so the support for pulp prices on the demand side is relatively weak. In addition, downstream paper companies have reduced acceptance of high priced wood pulp, resulting in poor spot transactions, which may limit the potential for pulp price increases in the short term.

In terms of futures, the price range of pulp futures fluctuates continuously. On May 24th, the opening price of the main contract for pulp futures SP2409 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,302 RMB/ton, the closing price was 6,284 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,324 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 1.6%. The trading volume was 305,500 lots and the position was 192,984 lots.

The price of downstream white cardboard is temporarily stable. On May 24th, the average market price of white cardboard 230g-400g was 4,503.33 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the market average on May 19th. At present, white cardboard is in the traditional off-season of the papermaking industry, with slow recovery of terminal demand and weak orders. Business owners lack confidence in the future, and the white cardboard market prices continue to consolidate within a certain range. In addition, the increase in raw material cost cannot effectively transmit to the raw paper and its terminals, and the pressure on the supply side of raw paper still exists.

SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that from the performance of the wood pulp market, the uncertainty of the supply side has led to expectations of tightening the supply side and external costs supporting the bottom price of the pulp market. However, there are still expectations of demand growth brought about by new downstream production capacity, and it is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

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