According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from May 17th to 24th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports first increased from 2,953 RMB/ton and then dropped to 2,750 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 6.88% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 26.39%. The domestic methanol market has fallen from a high level, port supply is gradually recovering, and the equipment in the northwest production area is gradually recovering. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the methanol market is strong, with moderate buying sentiment and mainly price fluctuations and declines.
As of the close on May 24th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,593 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,622 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,589 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,600 RMB/ton at the end of the day, up 3% or 0.12% from the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 819,190 lots, with a position of 938,612 lots and a daily increase of 12,389 lots.
On the cost side, as daily consumption gradually shifts towards seasonal increases and supply disruptions from production areas increase, the market presents an emotional upward trend. But with the support of long-term cooperative supply, while coal imports remain high, clean energy such as hydropower has also entered a high substitution stage, making it difficult for terminal demand to experience large-scale increases in the short term, and the space for price increases may be relatively limited. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Henan Lankao inventory reduction plan, narrow reduction in formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhua Runcun's start-up plan may see a narrow increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chlorides: Mainstream factories in Shandong have resumed normal operations, with a narrow increase in demand for chlorides; Downstream MTBE: Qixiang Tengda Storage Maintenance Plan, Reduced demand for MTBE; Downstream acetic acid: Henan Shunda underwent maintenance, Sinopec Great Wall and Guangxi Huayi resumed operations, resulting in a narrow increase in demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of facilities in Xinhang Coking, Inner Mongolia Baosteel, Nanjing Chengzhi, Shanghai Huayi, and Shaanxi Runzhong (Changwu); Guoneng Baotou, Guangxi Huayi, Chongqing Kabele, Pucheng Clean Energy, and Inner Mongolia Baogang have resumed their operations. The amount of recovery exceeds the amount of loss, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 23rd, The closing price of CFR Southeast Asian methanol market is $365.50-366.50 /ton, down $2 /ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market was 97.00-98.00 cents per gallon, up 5 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 300.00-301.00 euros/ton, down 0.25 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, market supply is gradually recovering, and downstream consumers still have a resistance to high prices or may maintain on-demand procurement. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market will be weak in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.
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