According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market for locally refined naphtha has recently stopped falling and rebounded. As of May 27th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8,006.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from May 20th at 8,014.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 7,900-8,100 RMB/ton; As of May 27th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7,924.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.19% from May 20th at 7,939.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was around 7,800-8,000 RMB/ton. The international crude oil market is volatile, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment of domestic naphtha. Terminal trading of refined naphtha is limited, and market trading is still concentrated in the gap of refined naphtha restructuring.

Upstream: The overall crude oil market has declined, on the one hand, market concerns about the economic and demand prospects have intensified, and the international oil price trend has declined. On the other hand, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories increased last week, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 1.8 million barrels to 458.8 million barrels.

Downstream: According to monitoring by SunSirs, the toluene market has remained stable recently. At present, international crude oil is experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is a downward risk in the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; The maintenance plan for the toluene unit in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply surface. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may experience a weak trend in the later stage and slightly rise after consolidation.

At present, the price monitoring of naphtha is at the median of one year, two years, and three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of naphtha in the past three years is 7,918.27 RMB/ton, with a median value of 8,250.75 RMB/ton, a minimum value of 6,645.75 RMB/ton, and a maximum value of 9,855.75 RMB/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 1,360.75 RMB/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -1,849.25 RMB/ton.

The international crude oil market will slightly rise, supporting the domestic naphtha market; At present, the terminal demand for refined naphtha is mainly concentrated in the gap of restructuring and demand trading, with refineries actively raising prices and trading mainly for demand; In terms of gasoline, there is still a downward trend in the short-term operating rate of refineries, and residents have returned to normal in terms of travel. However, there has been an increase in fuel consumption due to rising temperatures. Overall, the favorable support for gasoline is insufficient, and there is still room for a slight decline in the gasoline market in the later period; The demand for diesel has not changed much, and the supply is sufficient. The diesel market has slightly declined, but diesel profits are limited, which will limit the decline in diesel. Overall, it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will experience a slight increase in the near future.

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