According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the cement market in East China increased in May, with the price of No. 1 being 320.00 RMB/ton and No. 29 being 336.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.00%. The current price has dropped by 11.81% year-on-year.
In May, cement prices increased in some areas of East China. In the past two months, the cement market has seen a greater increase than a decrease, and this month's prices have fluctuated upwards. From January to April 2024, the national cement production was 50.928 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. In April, the national monthly cement production was 173.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. On June 1st, the new national standard for cement is about to be implemented, and the increase in production costs of cement and clinker will be inevitable. Affected by staggered production in multiple regions, there is an expectation of a decrease in cement supply. In order to improve profits, enterprises in the East China region led by manufacturers to raise prices, causing the cement market to fluctuate upwards.
In May, the price of thermal coal was relatively strong. In terms of origin, the overall production and sales of thermal coal remained normal, and the coal supply remained stable. Still focusing on implementing long-term cooperative shipping. In addition, due to recent coal mine safety and environmental inspections, market expectations are improving. Most coal mines have good sales, with an increase in coal hauling vehicles on the mine. The increase in coal prices at the origin has driven up the price of coal at the port. It is also because as the temperature rises and the peak sales season arrives, downstream demand increases, driving up coal prices.
From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 3092.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% (calculated according to comparable standards); Among them, residential investment was 2,339.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.5%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, with residential sales area decreasing by 23.8%. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing reached 2,806.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 28.3%, including a 31.1% decrease in residential sales. Recently, the significant relaxation of real estate policies is conducive to industry recovery, and demand for cement is expected to increase.
On June 1st, the new national standard for cement was implemented, and the production cost of cement will further increase. Currently, the cement market has hit bottom, and enterprises have strong upward demand. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the cement market will mainly experience a slight increase.
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