According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and declined. From May 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE dropped from 7,212 RMB/ton to 6,812 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 5.55% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%.
In the first half of the month, the MTBE market was mainly volatile and rebounded after the holiday. Downstream businesses were less enthusiastic about restocking than expected, and they still resisted high priced gasoline raw materials. Purchasing enthusiasm was average. During the holiday period, the Asian MTBE market experienced a broad decline, with few new export orders signed. There was a strong bearish atmosphere among businesses, and the MTBE market operated weakly.
In mid month, the domestic MTBE market continued to be weak and the decline intensified. The international crude oil trend is weak, and the downstream gasoline market demand is not good. Operators are more resistant to high priced gasoline raw materials, and MTBE factory shipments are hindered. At the same time, with the resumption of work of some heterogeneous units due to shutdown, MTBE resource supply continues to increase. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the decline of MTBE is more obvious.
In the latter half of the month, the domestic MTBE market continued to operate weakly, with a slowdown in decline compared to the previous period. Due to the sustained weak demand for gasoline, it was difficult for businesses to significantly improve their enthusiasm for purchasing gasoline raw materials. Under the high operating rate of MTBE equipment, resource supply continued to be excessive, and the market continued to operate weakly due to supply-demand imbalance.
Towards the end of the month, there was a slight rebound in the domestic MTBE market. There are many orders waiting to be delivered in terms of gasoline demand, and the enthusiasm of business owners to purchase gasoline raw materials has significantly increased. At the same time, with the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, it has once again stimulated the enthusiasm of manufacturers to push up prices. Prices across the country are actively pushing up, and downstream acceptance is average, with a stalemate mainly.
On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend in May, and there was positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel in the early days. The US Energy Information Agency also lowered its global demand forecast, but Saudi Arabia's view on the demand outlook has improved. In mid month, the market was concerned about the pressure of high interest rates on the economy and demand, but some economic data improved, and the instability of the geopolitical situation remained, with international oil prices falling first and then rising. In the latter half of the year, the geopolitical situation continued to ease, and market concerns about the economic and demand prospects were difficult to resolve. Coupled with the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, the overall international oil price continued to decline.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, residential travel has returned to normal, purchasing sentiment is not high, and the gasoline market has slightly declined. In addition, due to poor gasoline demand in the Asian region, China's gasoline exports in April fell to the lowest point in two years. In April, China's gasoline exports reached 484,800 tons, a decrease of 64.86% month on month and 50.73% year-on-year. The decrease in export volume is also one of the negative factors in the domestic refined oil market. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, the Tian'an plant in Qingzhou was shut down at the beginning of the month, and the Chengtai plant in Shandong resumed work; The construction of Tian'an equipment in Qingzhou started in mid month; At the end of the month, the Binzhou Jingbo plant started construction and the Qixiang Tengda plant underwent maintenance. Many manufacturers are exporting normally, but the overall supply of spot goods is still relatively high. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, on May 30th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market decreased by $26/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $828.49- $830.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has decreased by $16/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $987.49-987.99/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $20.02 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $950.33-950.68 per ton (267.70-267.80 cents per gallon).
According to future market forecasts, many manufacturers are exporting normally, and the overall supply of spot goods is still relatively high. The overall demand for gasoline is relatively flat. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly weak and consolidating in the short term.
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