According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has shown a significant upward trend. From May 1st to 31st (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic methanol market first increased from 2,651 RMB/ton and then dropped to 2,761 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 4.15% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 14.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 27.86%.

In the first half of the month, after the holiday, some methanol units in the main production area were repaired as scheduled, and some units unexpectedly shut down, resulting in overall tight supply and driving the mainland market to rise and operate.

In mid month, the situation abroad was unstable, and the arrival volume of methanol at ports was affected. The inventory in ports and mainland China was relatively low, and downstream procurement was still in demand. The tight supply situation led to a significant increase in the methanol market.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic methanol market experienced a high decline, with port supply gradually recovering and equipment in the northwest production area gradually recovering. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the methanol market was strong, with moderate buying sentiment and mainly price fluctuations and declines.

As the end of the month approaches, the market supply increases, and the downstream receiving sentiment is average. The main focus is on essential procurement, and the market situation continues to be weak.

As of the close of May 31st, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,659 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,673 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,630 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,631 RMB/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 31% or 1.16% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 707,360 lots, with a position of 919,665 lots and a daily increase of 34,432 lots.

On the cost side, the coal prices in the production areas have remained stable with a slight increase. Most coal mines have maintained normal production status, and the overall coal supply is relatively stable. Sales in most coal mines have remained normalized, and downstream demand has not significantly improved. The market's wait-and-see mentality still exists, and downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. The overall procurement pace is stable, and market confidence is insufficient. Coal prices are beginning to stabilize. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi Formaldehyde Plant Inventory and Reduction Plan, reducing formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Xinxiang Xinlianxin parking and Qianjiang Jinhua Run plant long-term parking have reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Henan Shunda is expected to restart, leading to an increase in demand for acetic acid; There are no new start-up and shutdown devices for methane chloride and MTBE, and there is little change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Yulin Yankuang and Dingzhou Tianlu equipment; Yunnan Qu Coal Plant reduces production; Inner Mongolia Yigao, Jiangyou Wanli, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, and Shanghai Huayi facilities have been restored. The increase in capacity utilization may lead to a continued increase in supply, which is influenced by bearish factors on the methanol supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 30th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 365.50-366.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 98.00-99.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 307.75-308.75 euros/ton, up 1.5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, market supply is gradually recovering, and downstream consumers still have a resistance to high prices or may maintain on-demand procurement. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market will be weak in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.

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