Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 2-methylpropene market had shown a downward trend since May, with the benchmark price of 2-methylpropene at 12,225 RMB/ton in early May. As of May 28th, the standard price of 2-methylpropene was 12,025 RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 1.64%. In mid to early May, the price of 2-methylpropene remained stable, and after May 14th, the price of 2-methylpropene began to decline continuously. The price trend of MTBE on the cost side fluctuated slightly, but overall showed a fluctuating downward trend.

Analysis review

Supply side:

Cost side:

On May 23rd, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.87 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of $0.70 US dollars per barrel or 0.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.36 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of $0.54 US dollars per barrel or 0.7%. As of now, crude oil had been falling for four consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil falling to a nearly three-month low. The main reason was that the high interest rate environment in the United States had brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data was bearish and geopolitical risk premiums were decreasing.

The domestic MTBE market was fluctuating and falling. From May 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE dropped from 7,212 RMB/ton to 6,812 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 5.55% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%. This month, many manufacturers were exporting normally, but the overall supply of spot goods was still relatively high. The overall demand for gasoline was relatively flat. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the domestic MTBE market was mainly weak and consolidating.

Market outlook

On the cost side, the overall decline in international oil prices in May combined with the sluggish trend of the MTBE market had constrained the price trend due to changes in expectations. The 2-methylpropene market was showing a downward trend. Partial maintenance and resumption of work for 2-methylpropene had resulted in a relaxed supply of domestic goods. Downstream demand lacked favorable incentives, and retail shipments were average. Analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic 2-methylpropene market may continue to be weaker in the short term.

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