According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of refined petroleum coke in May first increased and then decreased. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in May was 1,502.75 yuan/ton as of May 31, 1,485.00 yuan/ton as of May 1, with a monthly increase of 1.20%.
Cost wise: In May, the crude oil market fluctuated and declined. In the early days, there was positive progress in the Israeli Palestinian ceasefire negotiations, and the US Energy Information Agency also lowered its global demand forecast. However, Saudi Arabia's view on the demand outlook has improved. In mid month, the market was concerned about the pressure of high interest rates on the economy and demand, but some economic data improved, and the instability of the geopolitical situation remained, with international oil prices falling first and then rising. In the latter half of the year, the geopolitical situation continued to ease, and market concerns about the economic and demand prospects were difficult to resolve. Coupled with the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, the overall international oil price continued to decline.
Supply side: In mid to early May, the coking units of Fuhai United and Zhenghe Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance, resulting in low levels of petroleum coke storage in refineries, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market. Some refineries have seen changes in the sulfur content of petroleum coke, and the price of petroleum coke has fluctuated with the increase of sulfur content; As late May approaches the end of the month, downstream procurement intentions are average, and local refineries are actively reducing prices to ship petroleum coke, but market trading is limited. Recently, the import speed of petroleum coke at ports has been average, and the domestic supply of petroleum coke has increased, providing overall weak support for the petroleum coke market.
On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly decreased in May, showing a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of May 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441# metal silicon market was 13,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4.87% from the same period last year. The fundamental trend of metal silicon in May is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, as the rainy season approaches and silicon factories across the country have to increase production, leading to a gradual increase in supply; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and coupled with the gradual feedback of downstream production loss pressure to upstream, the spot price of metal silicon weakened under the bearish supply and demand side.
In May, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke declined. Currently, most enterprises are stabilizing their prices and mainly executing early orders. Downstream power battery factories are gradually increasing their demand, but the demand in the negative electrode market is limited, and enterprises are mostly wait-and-see.
The electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and rose in May. Currently, there is not much explicit inventory of aluminum ingots in China, and the post holiday inventory situation is better than market expectations. There is expected to be an increase in supply, but due to the relatively high domestic aluminum prices, the import window is closed, and the surge in LME inventory has little impact on the domestic market. The inventory of aluminum ingots and rods in mainstream consumer areas has been slightly depleted, with good consumption expectations and a relatively balanced supply and demand in the short term; The cost side has recently received strong support, and the demand side is expected to improve. In the short term, it is expected that the market will experience strong fluctuations and operations. The benchmark price for pre baked anode procurement in June has decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to May, and downstream aluminum and carbon enterprises have become more cautious in purchasing raw materials such as petroleum coke.
Currently, the overall supply of domestic petroleum coke market is sufficient, and the speed of port dredging for imported petroleum coke is average; As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, some downstream regions are expected to stock up before the festival, and the local petroleum coke market is expected to consolidate in the near future.
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