According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha in May first fell and then rose, with an overall decline. As of May 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8,101.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.28% from 8,376.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight run naphtha first fell and then rose, with an overall decline. As of May 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,044.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% from 8,349.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.
Product: In May, the overall market for ground refined naphtha fell first and then rose. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7,900-8,100 yuan/ton. In mid to early May, the terminal trading of refined naphtha in the region was limited, and refineries continued to reduce prices for shipments. The demand for ethylene cracking remained sluggish, and there was a shortage of essential trading for refined reforming in the region; In late May, the crude oil market saw a slight increase, supporting the domestic naphtha market. Refineries actively raised prices, and the terminal demand for local refined naphtha was mainly focused on restructuring the gap in demand trading.
Upstream: In May, the crude oil market fluctuated and declined, with positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel in the early days. The US Energy Information Agency also lowered its global demand forecast, but Saudi Arabia's view on the demand outlook has improved. In mid month, the market was concerned about the pressure of high interest rates on the economy and demand, but some economic data improved, and the instability of the geopolitical situation remained, with international oil prices falling first and then rising. In the latter half of the year, the geopolitical situation continued to ease, and market concerns about the economic and demand prospects were difficult to resolve. Coupled with the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, the overall international oil price continued to decline.
Downstream: The toluene market overall declined in May. The downstream oil adjustment demand in May was lower than expected, but the demand for disproportionation reaction is still acceptable; The maintenance plan for the toluene plant in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply side, and it is expected that the pressure on the toluene supply side will continue to ease. Partial device maintenance has led to a slight decrease in domestic PX production, with PX production slightly dropping to around 740% as of late May.
Energy analysts from SunSirs believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, which has limited support for the domestic naphtha market; At present, the terminal demand for refined naphtha is mainly concentrated in the gap of restructuring and demand trading, with refineries actively raising prices and trading mainly for demand; In terms of gasoline, it is difficult to increase the operating rate of refineries in the short term, and the travel of residents is normal. With the rise of temperature, the use of oil has increased. Overall, there is not much change in gasoline supply and demand, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile; There is not much change in the supply and demand of the diesel market, but wholesale diesel prices have bottomed out, squeezing refinery profits, and there is a trend of upward adjustment in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will mainly consolidate in the near future.
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