In May, the market for BR saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 31, the market price of BR in East China was 14,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.26% from the beginning of the month at 13,260 yuan/ton.

In May, downstream tire production fluctuated slightly, with demand mainly supported by the rigid demand for BR and downstream stocking based on demand; The market price of raw material butadiene fluctuates at a high level, while the cost center of BR remains high; The overall load of BR is not high, and the pressure on the supply side of BR is not high; The futures price of BR was significantly boosted by natural rubber, and the ex factory price of BR enterprises gradually increased in late May. As of May 31st, the mainstream price of BR market in East China was 13,900-14,300 yuan/ton.

In May, the production of BR remained at a low level, and there was not much pressure on the market supply. As of the end of May, the domestic BR plant construction was around 5.7%. The Qixiang Tengda 90,000 ton/year high Shun BR plant started routine shutdown and maintenance on April 18th, and resumed operation at the end of May; From May 6th to 24th, the 72,000 ton/year cobalt based high Shun BR plant of Taixiang Yubu (Nantong) was shut down for maintenance; Starting from May 10th, the 30,000 ton/year high Shun BR unit of Dushanzi Petrochemical will be gradually shut down for maintenance.

In May, the price of butadiene remained high, and there is still strong support for the cost of BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 31st, the price of butadiene was 11,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% from 11,712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 7.10% from the low point in the cycle.

Demand side: Downstream tire production fluctuates slightly, providing rigid support for BR. It is understood that as of the end of May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region increased from 6.4% at the beginning of the month to 6.8% in the middle of the month, and then slightly decreased to around 6.6% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: SunSirs analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for BR is still strong; The overall production of BR remains low, and there is no pressure on the supply side of BR; At present, downstream tire companies have experienced slight fluctuations in production, with the main support for the rigid demand for BR. Overall, the BR market is expected to rise and consolidate in the later stage under the support of cost and low production.

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