Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the stearic acid market fluctuated in May, with a benchmark price of 8,560 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of stearic acid was 8,900 RMB/ton, an increase of 125 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase by 1.42%. In early May, stearic acid rose and then fell, followed by a second increase in late May. As of the last day of May, stearic acid increased by 4.97% compared to April. On the cost side, palm oil fell and rose in May, and the situation showed that some stearic acid production enterprises still had low profits.

Analysis review

Cost side: In early May, the palm oil futures market experienced a rebound, and after the rebound, it gradually rebounded. On May 10th, the average price of palm oil in the market fell to 7,770 RMB/ton, a decrease of over 3% compared to the beginning of the month. In mid May, due to the increasing production cycle of Malay palm oil, palm oil experienced a pullback after rising. Long and short intertwined, palm oil saw a relatively large increase of nearly 1.5%. On May 30th, the average price of palm oil in the market was 7,940 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to May 20th. Starting from June, the weather had warmed up, and the demand for terminal oils had declined. The upward space for palm oil was still limited.

Supply and demand side: In May, the production and operation of the stearic acid factory approached a load level of 66%, which was almost the same as the previous month. The factory operation was stable, and the shipment volume remained at a stable level. The domestic supply of goods was also quite stable, supplemented by imported goods to replenish inventory. In April, the import volume of stearic acid in China was 21,450.756 tons, and from January to April, the total import volume of stearic acid in China was 96,063.289 tons. As of May 31st, there was sufficient inventory of stearic acid.

Downstream PVC: The spot market price of PVC rose in May. On May 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5,556 RMB/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 6,026 RMB/ton, and the price increased by 8.46% within the month. This month's news was mainly positive, with the rise of futures driving prices in the spot market. Downstream product enterprises held a wait-and-see attitude.

Market outlook

The stearic acid market fluctuated in May, with some fluctuations in the cost of palm oil, but the market slightly declined overall. Cost support was slightly weak. The improvement in demand for PVC downstream was limited. It is expected that the stearic acid market will continue to be weakly consolidated in the later stage.

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