Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from May 24th to June 7th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price increased from 5,987 RMB/ton to 6,007 RMB/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.33%, a month on month increase of 0.12%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.63%. The domestic ethyl alcohol market had rebounded and fluctuated. With the maintenance of some equipment, there was not much pressure on holders to ship, and delivery vehicles were still queuing up. The trading volume was good, and the price remained high.

Analysis review

On the cost side, imported corn continued to arrive at the port, and the domestic corn market had sufficient supply. The price of wheat in Linchi continued to decline, and the substitution effect for feed was becoming stronger. Downstream demand was more cautious, and many bearish factors were suppressing it. It is expected that the domestic corn market price will continue to rise in June without sufficient momentum, and the overall situation will fluctuate slightly at the current level. The cost of ethyl alcohol was influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there were significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China had started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China had started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions was about 20%. All Jixian devices had been shut down, and after merging, they will be replaced for maintenance; The extended Yushen device had officially entered shutdown; Anhui TanXin restarted on May 20th. The supply side of ethyl alcohol was influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continued to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement was smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production was stable with little fluctuation. In the short term, the demand side is bearish for ethanol market.

Market outlook

As of June 7th, the cost side and the supply side supported for the market. The procurement of Baijiu and chemical industry was not good, and the receiving price had declined month on month. Ethyl alcohol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game SunSirs predict that the short-term domestic ethyl alcohol market will mainly consolidate.

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