Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 10th to 17th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price increased from 6,007 RMB/ton to 6,032 RMB/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.42%, a month on month decrease of 0.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%. The price of raw corn was pushing up, and the cost of grain for enterprises was increasing, providing price support. Due to increased equipment maintenance in some regions, there had been a situation of spot installation, resulting in a tight supply. However, the trend of oversupply had continued, with flat trading volume and narrow fluctuations in the overall price of domestic ethyl alcohol market.

Analysis review

On the cost side, as of the 17th, the available spot inventory was low, breeding profits increased, supply tightened, and the overall domestic corn market trend was stronger. The cost side of ethyl alcohol had favorable factors for the market.

On the supply side, there were significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China had started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China had started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions was about 20%. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan Factory was shut down for maintenance in mid June, Guangxi Jinyuan was shut down for full line maintenance on June 12, Jilin Fuel Ethyl alcohol will undergo maintenance in early July, Wanli Runda will be shut down for maintenance in mid July, and Guotou Yushu Factory will undergo maintenance in mid to late July. The supply side of ethyl alcohol had favorable factors for the market.

On the demand side, Baijiu was in the off-season, and the demand was weak; The downstream construction of ethyl acetate rose slightly. After the Dragon Boat Festival, ethyl acetate enterprises had the expectation of centralized procurement; The impact of compliance policies on ethyl alcohol gasoline refining was gradually weakening, and major purchasing companies had resumed procurement operations. In addition, the usage rate of in vehicle air conditioning will increase from June, leading to a rebound in gasoline demand. The short-term demand for ethyl alcohol had a mixed impact.

Market outlook

As of June 17, the cost side and supply side had favorable factors for the market, and Baijiu and chemical procurement were poor. Supply and demand gamed. Ethyl alcohol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic ethyl alcohol market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

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