According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices have increased. As of the 19th, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 8,594.5 RMB/ton, with a two-day price increase of 0.99%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,356.2 RMB/ton, with a two-day price increase of 0.99%.

Cost side: Significant cost support from rising crude oil market

As of the 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.33 per barrel. Recently, the crude oil market has continued to rise, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. Cost support is evident, and the domestic refined oil market is tentatively rising.

Supply side: There is not much change in the supply at the low level of refinery operation

Recently, there are still maintenance facilities in Shandong, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has not changed much. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries remains around 53%, reaching a new low in two years, providing bottom support for the Shandong refined oil market. The domestic refining profits have been severely squeezed, with a significant reduction in profits. The enthusiasm of refineries to start production is not high, and the supply of refined oil remains low. The local refining gasoline and diesel market has rebounded.

Demand side: gasoline demand has improved, diesel demand is sluggish

In terms of gasoline, with the end of the middle and high school entrance exams and the gradual opening of summer vacation tourism, coupled with a significant increase in temperature and the use of car air conditioning, the demand for gasoline has slightly increased, and the gasoline market has slightly risen. In terms of diesel, there is not much change in downstream demand, and there is not much change in the operating rate of outdoor projects. Logistics and transportation are relatively normal. Recently, the wheat harvest stage has come to an end, and agricultural oil has fallen. Diesel demand is still sluggish, and diesel prices have slightly increased.

Market forecast: Currently, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much. With the start of summer vacation, there may be an increase in residents' travel, coupled with an increase in oil consumption due to rising temperatures, there is still room for a slight increase in the gasoline market in the later period; There is not much change in diesel demand, but diesel supply is at a low level, and with the support of the crude oil market, diesel prices may fluctuate narrowly.

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