According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, after the Loong Boat Festival, the bad news depressed the domestic soybean meal market. On June 10th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,458 RMB/ton. On June 20th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,290 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.86%.
According to the annual comparison chart of soybean meal prices in SunSirs, it can be seen that from January to February 2024, the soybean meal market continued to decline, with a decline of over 16%. March saw an upward trend, oscillating for half a month before continuing to decline for almost a month. Starting from April 15th, soybean meal experienced a brief rebound again. After the rise, it continued to experience weak fluctuations, with prices remaining around 3,300 RMB/ton. In May, the overall soybean meal market fluctuated and rose by 2.69%. Since June, the soybean meal market has briefly risen again, followed by a high jump and a continuous decline. On June 20th, soybean meal fell to 3,290 RMB/ton, the lowest point for the year in 2024.
After the Loong Boat Festival, the main reasons for the continuous decline of soybean meal market are: the supply of raw materials is loose, the inventory remains high, the futures level is dominated by bad news, the terminal feed demand is low, and the soybean meal market continues to decline.
Let's analyze the main factors that affect the rise and fall of the soybean meal market at this stage.
Supply side: The total import volume of soybeans from January to May 2024 was 37.37 million tons, and China's soybean import volume in May was 10.22 million tons, an increase of 19% compared to April. Since June, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong has been continuously increasing, and the import volume is expected to exceed 10 million tons. The supply side pressure has doubled, suppressing the upward potential of the soybean meal market.
Inventory: According to the statistical chart of soybean meal inventory in SunSirs, the inventory of soybean meal continued to decline from January to April 2024. On April 5th, the soybean meal inventory was at its lowest point of the year, only 300,000 tons. Starting from mid April, soybean meal inventory showed a rebound trend and continued to increase. On the week of April 19th, soybean meal inventory had exceeded 440,000 tons. Starting from May, soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate, and inventory levels continued to rise. In June, soybean meal inventory remained high. As of the week ending on the 14th, soybean meal inventory increased to about 1 million tons, setting a new high for the year. The inventory pressure is constantly increasing, and the soybean meal market is weakening.
Futures: Since June, the decline in Brazilian soybean production has become a foregone conclusion. The global soybean production decline in the US Agricultural Report meets expectations, and the planting progress of US soybeans is relatively fast, with a decline in the rate of good growth. At the futures level, there is a combination of long and short positions, with insufficient bullish momentum, which provides limited support for the domestic soybean meal futures market. The overall weak oscillation in the soybean meal market is the main trend, while the spot market is mainly in a downward trend with continuous decline.
Demand: Starting from June, with hot weather, the demand for feed in the terminal breeding industry has weakened, and the quantity of soybean meal purchased by feed factories has declined. Due to the significant decline in the soybean meal market, terminal feed factories are purchasing according to demand, and the market is mainly bearish. Purchasing power has declined, and soybean meal transactions are average, with bearish demand suppressing the market. As a result, the soybean meal market continues to decline.
Agricultural product analysts from SunSirs believe that the soybean meal market continued to decline in June. As we enter July, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong continues to increase significantly, and the loose supply situation is difficult to change. The demand for terminal feed is still in the off-season. In terms of futures, during the growth period of American soybeans, there is room for bullish weather themes, and soybean meal may experience oscillating gains. Due to bearish factors, the future soybean meal market still lacks momentum.
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