Aluminum prices fell in June

Aluminum prices fell in June and recently began to stabilize. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on June 20, 2024 was 20,463.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.73% compared to the market average price of 21,256.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

Analysis review

This week's data showed that aluminum prices had stopped falling and stabilized, rebounding by 0.34%.

The price increase driven by cost and macro factors in the early stage was basically offset, and the sentiment in the aluminum ingot market was gradually returning to its original state. On the one hand, there was an expectation of volume increase on the supply side; Due to the steady resumption of production by Yunnan aluminum enterprises, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was at a relatively high level, with a monthly month on month increase of 300,000 tons. On the other hand, on the demand side, there was a downward trend in the operating rate of aluminum rods. Coupled with market demand, there were not many new orders for photovoltaic modules and building profiles, which were lower than expected. There was a certain degree of mismatch between supply and demand, coupled with the strong fear of high prices in the market after the previous price increase, aluminum prices experienced a significant pullback in June.

Market outlook

Recently, due to falling to the market game level and high aluminum prices outside, the export window had opened, and the market experienced a stabilization after the decline. It is expected that there is a high probability of continuing to improve in the short term.

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