Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market had recently stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 20th, the average PTA market price in East China was 5,968 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.04% compared to the 18th. The warm atmosphere in the commodity market had triggered resonance, and in addition, an unplanned short-time stop of a 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest led to an increase in the PTA market.

Analysis review

In the future, in terms of PTA supply, multiple sets of PTA devices will restart in late June. Among them, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in East China is planned to restart on June 21, a set of 1.5 million ton PTA devices is planned to restart on June 23, and a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in South China is planned to restart on June 25. PTA production may increase, limiting price increases.

Recently, the crude oil market has been volatile and rising, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation was favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors supported the upward trend of international oil prices. As of June 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was quoted at 85.07 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, crude oil prices are mainly volatile, and support for PTA costs is still ongoing.

In the downstream polyester industry, some polyester products had been promoted in large quantities with significant effects, and the operating rate had slightly increased to over 88%. The market believes that the probability of polyester factories reducing production was reduced, so the demand side was relatively stable. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was temporarily stable at around 71%. Due to factors such as high temperatures and off-season, some downstream factories may reduce their load operations, resulting in a decrease in terminal demand.

Market outlook

Overall, analysts from SunSirs believe that the PTA maintenance equipment will be restarted next week, which will further increase domestic PTA production. It is still necessary to pay attention to whether polyester factories will continue to reduce production and changes in PTA demand. It is expected that PTA will lack bullish guidance in the short term, and prices may slightly decline.

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