Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda had remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 796 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.69% compared to the same period last year.

Analysis review

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall domestic caustic soda prices had remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region was temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 970-1,050 RMB/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region was consolidating, with a mainstream market price of around 760-840 RMB/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The domestic price of downstream alumina remained in a narrow consolidation trend, as the delayed increase in alumina content was less than expected, downstream production and supply were stable, and the available spot quantity in the market was limited. Overall, alumina prices were mainly consolidating and operating.

In May 2024, China imported 3,024.37 tons of liquid alkali, an increase of 2,980.865 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 6,851.78%. In May 2024, China's liquid alkali export volume was 275,644.752 tons, an increase of 159,554.972 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 137.44%.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling included PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and sodium bicarbonate (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week was -0.43%.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week. It is expected that the utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity will be around 85.5% this week, and the utilization rate might increase. Downstream alumina is mainly purchased on demand, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a consolidation operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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