According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the spot prices of natural rubber in China have recently narrowed from June 18th to June 24th. As of June 24th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,402 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.04% from 14,408 RMB/ton on June 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 14,465 RMB/ton.
On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in the production areas is tight, which provides strong support for the natural rubber market. In the last week of the month, the circulation of imported rubber goods remained tight, and in addition, some areas of the Hainan production area in China were hindered in rubber cutting, resulting in a continuous increase in the purchase prices of raw materials in the production area. At present, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by the weather, and the cutting progress is slow. As of June 24th, the price of Thai glue is 73.45 Thai baht/kg, and the price has declined; As of the 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 14,500 RMB/ton, and the purchase price of glue based all latex raw materials was around 14,200 RMB/ton.
On the other hand, the slow destocking of natural rubber inventory provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of June 23, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 511,200 tons, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the previous month. The inventory in the bonded zone was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 8.04%; The general trade inventory was 441,300 tons, a decrease of 1.87%.
Downstream tire production has slightly increased, with demand supporting the natural rubber market to some extent. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of June 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 58%.
Currently, the supply in some domestic and foreign regions is still relatively low, and the overall raw material prices remain high, supporting the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side have a slow speed of destocking, and tire companies are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; At present, natural rubber port inventories continue to decline. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term. In the later stage, with the increase in supply in production areas and the decrease in downstream off-season production, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fall back from a high level.
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