According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 17th to 25th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports dropped from 2,520 RMB/ton to 2,500 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.79% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 9.09%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.19%. The domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations. The overall supply of methanol in China is sufficient, and the demand is mainly weak.
As of the close on June 24th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,494 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,502 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,475 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,478 RMB/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 34% or 1.35% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 506,397 lots, with a position of 726,475 lots and a daily increase of 5,233 lots.
On the cost side, there is currently a significant temperature differentiation between the north and south, with sustained high temperatures in the northern region and an increase in residential electricity demand; The southern region still experiences frequent rainfall, lower temperatures compared to the same period in previous years, and relatively poor electricity demand from residents. In the short term, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the coal market. Before the daily consumption of power plants increases, the market will continue the current stalemate, and coal prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly. The cost of methanol has a mixed impact.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Hebei Jiantao and Yinglishi may have recovery expectations, leading to an increase in demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: Guangxi Jinyi Technology plant is operating at increased load, resulting in an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: With the increase in load of the ShengdeRMB unit in Dezhou and the start-up of the Kaixiang unit in Yima, the demand for dimethyl ether has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: The Jinyimeng formaldehyde plant operates under reduced load, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: The shutdown of Bengu New Materials and Ningxia Baofeng will continue to affect the decrease in MTBE demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of Yulin Yankuang, Zhongtian Hechuang, Shanxi Coking, Inner Mongolia Xinao equipment; The Genyang new energy device has been restored. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 24th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $357.00-$358.00 per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf Methanol Market was 111.00-112.00 cents per gallon, up 4 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 319.75-320.75 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
In the future market forecast, there is abundant supply in the mainland, and although there is an expectation of an increase in the production of acetic acid, chloride, and dimethyl ether in the short term, the market boost is limited. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market will remain weak in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.
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