The window for this round of domestic refined oil price adjustment opened at 24:00 on June 27th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to increase. The retail price in 2024 has gone through five increases, four decreases, and three setbacks, and the crude oil change rate during the cycle remains positive. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter a "sixth" increase.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has risen. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.90 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.25 per barrel. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil has risen. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, strongly supporting oil prices. Multiple favorable factors have affected the upward trend of international oil prices, and the rate of change in crude oil remains positive. As of the 27th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 5.01%, corresponding to an increase of 210 RMB/ton for gasoline and 200 RMB/ton for diesel. The discounted price increased by 92# 0.16 RMB, 95# 0.17 RMB, and 0# 0.17 RMB.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has remained low, with an average operating rate of around 52%. Local refineries in China have not yet overcome heavy losses, and the processing profits of their main refineries are meager. Refining profits have been severely squeezed, resulting in a significant decrease in profitability and a significant decrease in the polarity of refinery operations. The supply of refined oil has not changed much, and the recent demand for gasoline is still good. Intermediaries replenish their stocks as needed, and the purchasing sentiment is average. The gasoline market is mainly volatile.
Diesel: recently, the contradiction between supply and demand of diesel oil has appeared. The diesel oil market at the supply side has not changed much, but the demand for diesel oil has declined. On the one hand, due to the impact of many rainstorm in the south, the commencement of outdoor projects has declined significantly; On the other hand, agricultural diesel has come to an end, and due to the impact of the fishing ban, the demand for diesel in the market is sluggish. As a result, the diesel market has been sluggish recently.
Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, there is not much change in the short-term operating rate of refineries. With the increase of air conditioning usage in summer and the start of summer vacation, there may be an increase in residents' travel. The demand for gasoline is still guaranteed, and there is still room for a slight increase in the gasoline market in the future; Diesel demand is sluggish, but diesel prices are at a low level, coupled with the support of the crude oil market, diesel prices may fluctuate narrowly.
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