Price trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, stainless steel fluctuated and fell in June. As of the end of June, the spot price of stainless steel was 13,928.57 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.22% from 13,164.27 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
Analysis review
According to the comparison of annual stainless steel prices in the past five years by SunSirs, the probability of stainless steel prices rising in July is relatively high.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply and demand, production slightly declined in May, while crude production rebounded month on month in June. There has been progress in the approval of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, and the pressure on the mining side has weakened. However, nickel ore remains strong in June, and cost support is still ongoing. In July, mining support may gradually weaken, and Indonesian industrial policies may cause disturbances to the future production of nickel pig iron and high ice nickel.
In May, the demand for stainless steel raw materials for the four major household appliances was 253,300 tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 1.70%. Affected by the rise in temperature, the demand for some seasonal household appliances had shown relatively optimistic performance, and the overall decline in demand for stainless steel raw materials in household appliances was limited. At present, it is in the off-season for traditional stainless steel consumption, the enthusiasm for downstream backup is relatively low, and the performance of terminal demand is also lackluster.
Stainless steel inventory
As of last weekend, the total inventory of stainless steel was 1.0871 million tons, a decrease of 1.02% from last week. Among them, both cold and hot rolled inventories decreased. The steel mill controlled the pace of shipment, spot resources were limited and the social warehouse destocked on demand. Warehouse receipt inventory was still at a historical high.
Market outlook
In summary, the recent market inventory base has continued to be relatively high, and the overall digestion of goods has not significantly improved. Supply pressure continues to exist. In the traditional off-season of consumption, end users maintain an on-demand delivery trend, continue to restrict overall trading follow-up, and the demand side support continues to be poor. On the other hand, the variation of raw materials represented by nickel is limited and has little impact on the cost of stainless steel. Overall, the stainless steel market remains under pressure, and it is expected that the stainless steel market may continue to fluctuate to be weaker in the short term.
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