According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of natural rubber in China has risen first and then fallen recently (6.24-6.30). As of June 29th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,540 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.96% from 14,402 RMB/ton on the 24th, and a decrease of 1.54% from the high point of 14,768 RMB/ton in the cycle.
On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign production areas has been slow to increase due to the impact of rainfall, which still provides some support for the natural rubber market. However, in the later stage, as the impact of rainfall decreases, the supply of raw materials will gradually increase, and it is expected that the supply will face certain pressure on natural rubber. As of June 29th, the price of Thai adhesive is 70.45 Thai baht/kg, which is lower than the previous price; As of the 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area has remained stable at around 14,500 RMB/ton; The purchase price of all latex raw materials for glue production is around 14,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 100 RMB/ton compared to the previous period.
On the other hand, natural rubber inventories are slowly being depleted, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the overall market. As of June 23, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 511,200 tons, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the previous month. The inventory in the bonded zone was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 8.04%; The general trade inventory was 441,300 tons, a decrease of 1.87%.
Downstream tire production has slightly increased, with demand supporting the natural rubber market to some extent. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of June 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.2%.
The current domestic and international raw material supply is slowly increasing due to the impact of rainfall, and the overall raw material prices remain high, which supports the cost of natural rubber; But as the supply of raw materials continues to increase in the later stage, it will bring pressure to the supply of natural rubber. In addition, downstream tire companies have a slow speed of destocking and are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations in the short term.
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