The domestic MTBE market fluctuated slightly. From July 1st to 5th, the price of MTBE increased from 6,525 RMB/ton to 6,550 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.38% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%. The international crude oil trend is good, and under this positive support, manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices. At the same time, terminal operators have a certain degree of purchasing enthusiasm, and there is still some positive support for demand. MTBE manufacturers maintain a high price for shipments. At the same time, due to the high MTBE prices in Asia, export order negotiations are active, forming a positive support for the mentality of operators. In the short term, the MTBE market is mainly volatile.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have risen, with the main positive factors being the increased instability of the Middle East situation caused by the tense Israel Lebanon relationship, and the unexpected decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of July 4th, Brent crude oil has slightly increased, with the settlement price of the main contract at $87.43 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the expectation of a new round of retail price restrictions on refined oil products is expected to rise. At the same time, with the arrival of summer, the number of people traveling has increased, bringing good news to the oil market. Most gas station merchants maintain high inventory positions for purchasing and selling. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Dongying Qifa, Shandong Minghao, Tianli High tech, Bengu New Materials, Debao Road Isomerization, Debao Road Dehydrogenation and other facilities are currently under shutdown, while Ningxia Hengyou facility is operating normally with no significant fluctuations. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $14/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $871.99-873.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $12.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,025.74-1,026.24 per ton. The MTBE market in the United States is closed due to the Independence Day holiday.
In the future market forecast, the supply side will experience narrow fluctuations, and the terminal will mainly rely on replenishing inventory in demand. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that there is not much volatility in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.
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