According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 1st to 5th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market dropped from 2,532 RMB/ton to 2,515 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.66% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 5.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.70%. The domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations. The overall supply of methanol in China is sufficient, and the demand is mainly weak.
As of the close on July 5th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,560 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,571 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,539 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,540 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 24, or 0.94%, compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 645,511 lots, and the position was 696,766 lots, with a daily increase of -8,924.
On the cost side, there are both long and short factors in the coal market. Before the daily consumption of power plants rises, the market will continue the current stalemate, and coal prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly. This summer, hydropower output continues to strengthen, and demand for coal may continue to be squeezed. Even if coal prices rebound, there will be limited room for improvement. The cost of methanol has a mixed impact.
On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhua Run and Guizhou Tianfu briefly drove, resulting in an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Ningxia Hengyoucun's construction plan leads to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream acetic acid: Ineos is about to recover, and demand for acetic acid is increasing; Downstream chloride: Guangxi Jinyi Technology plant is operating at increased load, resulting in an increase in chloride demand; Downstream formaldehyde: The formaldehyde plants in Liuyang Jinggang and Guanghan HuaRMB have been shut down, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of equipment in Ningxia Baofeng, Xinjiang Guanghui, and Shandong Alliance; Inner Mongolia has a production reduction device; Gansu Huating and Chongqing Wansheng installations have been restored. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 4th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 355.00 to 356.00 US dollars per ton. The US Gulf Methanol Market is closed; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 324.75-325.75 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
In the future market forecast, the domestic methanol market in the short term will mainly focus on destocking and downstream rigid demand procurement. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly maintain consolidation.
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