Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 1st to 5th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price dropped from 6,052 RMB/ton to 6,032 RMB/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.33% and a year-on-year price drop of 9.11%. Supported by cost factors, the main factories at the beginning of the week mainly raised prices and maintained stable quotations. However, as downstream demand declined, the domestic ethyl alcohol market was weakly consolidated.

Analysis review

On the cost side, the surplus grain at the grassroots level had bottomed out, downstream phased procurement, and import grain powder was limited. The corn market was operating at a relatively high level. The cost side of ethyl alcohol is favorable for the market.

On the supply side, there were significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China had started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China had started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions was about 20%. Jilin Fuel Ethyl alcohol will undergo maintenance in early July, Wanli Runda will be shut down for maintenance in mid July, and Guotou Yushu Factory will undergo maintenance in mid to late July. The supply side of ethyl alcohol is favorable for the market.

Demand side, Baijiu consumption was in off-season; In terms of methyl ethyl ester, Kunpeng and Liande in Jiangxi had restarted, and the short-term procurement of anhydrous materials will increase; The production of ethyl acetate had been affected by the reduction in load of Anhui Huayi, Anhui Ruibai, and Guangxi Xintiande units. There will be no recovery plan heard in the short term, and the low production level will continue to be maintained. The ethyl alcohol demand will be bearish for the market in the short term.

Market outlook

In some regions, the cost side was favorable, supporting strong ex factory prices for production enterprises. Weak demand in most regions affected the atmosphere of the ethyl alcohol market. Ethyl alcohol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic ethyl alcohol market will be weak and mainly consolidating in the short term.

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