Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 1st to 5th, the average price of domestic BDO remained at 9,035 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.44%. The domestic BDO market was operating in a stalemate, with weak negotiations. Recently, there had been many maintenance and replacement devices, resulting in a reduction in the supply of goods in the market. Production enterprises were mainly inclined to maintain prices. Downstream procurement was on-demand, and the main downstream PTMEG market was declining, the industry was mostly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market trading focus was temporarily stable.

Analysis review

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the early shutdown and maintenance equipment had not yet been restarted, while equipment such as Lanshantunhe, Xinjiang Tianye, Chongqing Jianfeng, Inner Mongolia Sanwei, etc. had been shut down for maintenance and replacement. As a result, the overall capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry had significantly declined, and the market spot supply had been reduced, supporting the continuation of the supplier's price mentality. The supply side of BDO was positive for the market.

On the cost side, raw materials of calcium carbide: The domestic television market had once again declined, with a clear oversupply in the market. As downstream maintenance enterprises continued to increase and demand continued to weaken, there was still room for a downward trend in the price of calcium carbide. Raw material methanol: The methanol market was weak and consolidating. As of 10:00 am on July 5th, the domestic methanol price at Taicang was 2,535 RMB/ton. The cost side of BDO was bearish for the market.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG experienced a decrease in overall industry load due to maintenance of equipment such as Blue Mountain Tunhe; Moreover, the industry's production capacity base had increased, and under competitive pressure, the PTMEG market had declined. The industry had entered a state of loss, which was a bearish mentality for market players. There was no significant change in other downstream loads, and the follow-up of essential contracts was maintained. The enthusiasm for spot procurement was not high. The demand side was bearish for the market.

Market outlook

Some devices were still under maintenance and replacement, and the supply of goods in the market had decreased. There was some support on the supply side, and the supplier's stable market mentality continued. There was no significant change in the actual downstream demand of the terminal, and contract orders were maintained to follow up. BDO analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic BDO market will have limited fluctuations.

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