The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on July 11th. The zero selling price of refined oil has been raised again in this round, and the retail price in 2024 has experienced six upward adjustments, four downward adjustments, and three stranded adjustments. The crude oil change rate remains positive during the cycle, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2024 will encounter the "seventh" upward adjustment.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first rose and then fell. As of the 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.08 per barrel. At the beginning of this cycle, the crude oil trend rose. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation once again brought supply risks to the surface, and coupled with the impact of hurricanes on US crude oil production, the supply and demand bureau favored the oil market. On the other hand, the continued release of positive news during the peak summer travel season in the United States, coupled with increased seasonal demand, strongly supports oil prices. In the later stage of this cycle, crude oil prices have declined, and geopolitical factors have eased. In addition, unfavorable economic data has led to a decline in crude oil prices. However, the overall average value is higher than the previous cycle, and the rate of change in crude oil remains positive. As of the 11th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 2.36%, corresponding to an increase of 110 RMB/ton for gasoline and 105 RMB/ton for diesel. The discounted price increased by 9 # 0.0.8 RMB, 95# 0.09 RMB, and 0# 0.09 RMB.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has remained low, with an average operating rate of around 52%. Local refineries in China have not yet overcome severe losses, and their main processing profits are meager. Refining profits have been severely squeezed, resulting in a significant decrease in refinery operating enthusiasm. The supply of refined oil has not changed much, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable in the near future. Intermediaries can replenish their inventory according to demand, thanks to the stable consumption level in the summer, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the contradiction between diesel supply and demand has emerged, and there has been little change in the diesel market on the supply side. However, diesel demand has declined, partly due to the impact of high temperatures and rainy seasons, resulting in a decline in outdoor project construction; On the other hand, agricultural diesel has come to an end, and coupled with the impact of the fishing ban, there is an imbalance between diesel supply and demand, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory. As a result, the diesel market has been sluggish in recent times.
Looking at the future, the current geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the impact of hurricanes in the Gulf has been eliminated. In addition, the situation between Palestine and Israel has eased, and overall crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has not changed much. With the increase in air conditioning usage in summer and the opening of summer vacation, there may be an increase in residents' travel. The demand for gasoline is still guaranteed, and the gasoline market will continue to be supported in the later stage; The demand for diesel is sluggish, but diesel prices are at a low level. Coupled with the support of the crude oil market, diesel prices may mainly fluctuate at a low level.
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