According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 8th to 12th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,505 RMB/ton to 2,554 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.96% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.44%. The domestic methanol market is being organized and operated within a certain range. The expected maintenance of some equipment in methanol production areas, coupled with low inventory levels in production enterprises, supports the improvement of the mainland market, but demand remains weak and growth is limited.
As of the close on July 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained stable. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,584 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,590 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,562 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,573 RMB/ton in the closing session, unchanged from the previous trading day's closing calculation, with a trading volume of 522,239 lots and a position of 763,431 lots, with a daily increase of -31,274.
On the cost side, with the gradual increase in daily consumption, the enthusiasm for terminal procurement has increased. At the same time, it will officially enter the summer season in mid July, and the range of high temperature weather will continue to expand. The daily consumption of power plants will still increase significantly, and there may be a phased improvement in demand in the future. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhuarun and Guizhou Tianfu briefly drove, and the demand for dimethyl ether increased; Downstream MTBE: Ningxia Hengyoucun has plans to start production, but MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream acetic acid: Ineos is about to recover, and demand for acetic acid is increasing; Downstream chloride: Guangxi Jinyi Technology's equipment is operating at increased capacity, leading to an increase in chloride demand; Downstream formaldehyde: Liuyang Jinggang and Guanghan HuaRMB formaldehyde plants have been shut down, reducing formaldehyde demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
Supply side, maintenance of coal gasification facilities in Shanghai Huayi, Jinfeng Wenxi, Xiaoyi Pengfei, Shaanxi Shenmu, and Hebi; Shanxi Orchid, Ningxia Changyi, Shanghai Huayi, Shaanxi Lean Chemical, Yangmei Fengxi, Inner Mongolia Xinao plant restoration. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of July 11th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $355.00- $356.00 per ton, up $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 105.00-106.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 319.75-320.75 euros/ton.
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