According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since July, the domestic soybean meal market has rebounded weakly, continued to explore the bottom weakly, oscillated and fell for half a month, and the price fell to 3,100 RMB/ton, the lowest point of the year, which is 200 RMB/ton lower than the year-end low of 3,300 RMB/ton in mid April. On July 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,302 RMB/ton. On July 15th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.12%.
Supply side: In June 2024, China imported 11.114 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 8.73% month on month and 8.22% year-on-year. From January to June, China imported 48.481 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. In July, China imported about 11 million tons of soybeans into the port, and the amount of imported soybeans as raw materials continued to increase, leading to a continuous decline in the domestic soybean meal market.
Inventory: From January to April 2024, soybean meal inventory continued to decline, and on the week of April 5th, soybean meal inventory was at its lowest point of the year, only 300,000 tons. In mid April, soybean meal inventory showed a rebound trend. After May, soybean meal inventory continued to rise, and on the week of June 14th, soybean meal inventory increased to around 1 million tons. In July, soybean meal inventory reached a new high for the year. During the week of July 5th, soybean meal inventory reached around 1.05 million tons, and in the middle of the year, soybean meal inventory remained high. The inventory pressure continues to double, and the domestic soybean meal market continues to decline.
Futures: Starting from July, the progress of soybean planting is fast, and the expectation of high yield is increasing. However, there is insufficient motivation for favorable weather conditions. The USDA report shows a slight decrease in the planting area of US soybeans, mainly due to loose supply. The overseas soybean futures market has been suppressed, while the domestic soybean meal futures market has followed suit and declined. On July 15th, the main contract for soybean meal received 3,105 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 83 RMB/ton, a 7.75% decrease from the beginning of the month. The futures market continues to be weak, and the domestic soybean meal spot market follows suit.
Demand: In July, the weather continued to heat up, and the demand for feed in the terminal breeding industry was sluggish, resulting in poor procurement of soybean meal by feed factories. The soybean meal market continues to decline. The terminal feed factory lacks confidence in the soybean meal market, with average transactions and low demand during the off-season. The sustained sluggish demand for soybean meal has limited support for the soybean meal market.
The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that the soybean meal market has been declining for nearly half a month in July, and the amount of imported soybeans continues to increase, doubling the supply pressure. The terminal breeding industry has entered the off-season, and the purchasing volume of feed factories has declined. In terms of futures, the high yield forecast of soybean has increased, and the bearish trend continues to suppress. The soybean meal market will continue to bottom out in the future.
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