Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 17th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF of DMF enterprises was 4,000 RMB/ton. From early July 1st to 17th, the overall DMF price fell by 5.83%, with a decline of about 300 RMB/ton. As of July 17th, the DMF price was at its lowest level in three years. In July, we entered the traditional off-season, with slow shipments from manufacturers, sustained high inventory levels, increased inventory pressure, low overall market operating rates, weaker digestion of the DMF market and wait-and-watch the market.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, the main upstream product of DMF, liquid ammonia, showed a significant decline in early July. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the trading atmosphere did not improve. The overall market price continued to consolidate weakly, with a small amount of shipments being the main focus. The downstream market demand was sluggish, and the mentality of first-time buyers was pessimistic and cautious. Ammonia companies adjusted prices according to their own situation. As of July 17th, the overall market supply was relatively sufficient, and the operating rate was running steadily. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term.

In terms of demand, downstream agricultural demand was in the traditional off-season, with weak demand and a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. Terminal demand continued to be weak, making it difficult for enterprises to stock up. The overall market demand was limited, and stagnant operation was the main trend. Manufacturers had lowered prices and shipped goods to alleviate the pressure of high inventory. As of July 17th, the industry's profitability was not optimistic, and some enterprises had stopped production or reduced production to cope with the market situation.

Market outlook

DMF analysts from SunSirs believe that the DMF market had been operating with narrow fluctuations recently, and there is still a risk of further price decline. The mentality of industry players was somewhat average, mainly focusing on cautious procurement for essential demand. It is expected that DMF prices will remain around 4,000 RMB/ton in the short term.

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